SHAKE HANDS WITH THE DEVIL – AGAIN
After a year long campaign in a war in two fronts, Israel is pushed by the international community to make a deal with Hezbollah again.
The reasons for Hezbollah to accept a cease fire is to get some respite from the battle and remove their terrorist leaders from reach of Israel. Hezbollah once demanded life guarantee of their leaders from Israel, but this is not in the text of the cease fire.
Israel needs a respite too. This war is over a year and the opposition parties are taking advantage of it. The Israelis are tired of the war.
BIDEN DESIRE FOR A NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
This cease fire agreement may have been shoved into Israel due to the desperation in the White House for a Nobel Peace Prize as a participation trophy for Joe Biden.
The failed presidency which botched the withdrawal from Afghanistan and saw Russia invade Ukraine and the October 7th attack on Israel is now coveting the Nobel prize, at the cost of Israel, and probably has been offered a co-participation prize to whoever represents Hezbollah.
Benjamin Netanyahu is totally out of the co participation on the Nobel Peace Prize, due to the idiotic notion that Israel is the bad agent in this conflict. Anyway, Netanyahu has a prison warrant – from the ICC – if he goes to Europe.
THE WAR IN LEBANON
Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets onto Israel from their positions south of the Litani river – the 2006 demarcation line for the UN security enforced (UNIFIL) non beligerant area between the north border of Israel and the south of the Litani river. This is resolution 1701, which was signed by Hezbollah and Israel but violated by Hezbollah immediately after they have been resupplied by Iran.
Hezbollah communications network was disrupted with the successful operation against Hezbollah operatives using pagers, which exploded on the operators themselves, maiming many hundreds of terrorism coordinators, including some foreign government representatives. This made Hezbollah terrorist operations very difficult, for all these people were out of commission as well as the remaining ones were unable to use electronic communications like mobile phones for fear of being eavesdropped or blown appart.
Iran has attacked Israel from Iran territory twice. Once with a barrage of 300 devices, with very limited success. More then 90% of the munitions did not reach Israel, being intercepted by Israel, the USA, UK and even Saudi Arabia. The second attack from Iranian territory was also unsuccessful, with few casualties in Israel.
The retaliation attack from Israel razed the anti-aircraft defense system and managed to hit a secret nuclear facility not listed for the AIEA – revealing AIEA is useless. As this nuclear armament facility was not listed, Iran made the most to hide it’s destruction. This may have compromised the ability of Iran to produce a nuclear bomb in the near future.
With this result and the relentless operations from Israel to assassinate the top bosses of Hezbollah, the international community has demanded that a cease fire be put in place.
The world would be much better without Hezbollah, which is a shadow government in Lebanon, a proxy of the Iranian regime which desires to keep a presence on the Mediterranean Sea as well as destroy Israel. The Hezbollah is responsible for terrorist attacks onto the USA/France barracks in 1982, where hundreds of soldiers and some Lebanese civilians were murdered in a bomb attack.
HEZBOLLAH FAILURE TO HONOR TREATIES
The track record of Hezbollah is 100% failure in honoring treaties.
They always demand a cease-fire when they are losing the battle and when resupplied by Iran, resume hostilities. The information is that this time hours after the cease-fire begun, trucks with munitions were already resupplying Hezbollah position in below the Litani river.
Hezbollah enjoys an interesting position as a shadow-government of Lebanon. At the same time that it charges taxes on citizens, control their own army – militia in newspeak – and have a say in the Lebanon’s foreign policy, they claim to be a non state, just a group of freedom fighters to save Lebanon from the Israelis. This throws the responsibility of enforcing the treaty onto the Lebanese government, which is under partial control of the Hezbollah and have less military power than the Hezbollah themselves.
Most important of all, as “freedom fighters” Hezbollah claims all their dead as civilians, even if they are armed and even if they are in the command chain of their army. The international media takes Hezbollah word and goes on publishing that “civilians” were slaughtered while in reality they were armed troops in combat.
Lebanon deserves to be liberated from the Iranian government. It is no secret that the cease-fire was negotiated with approval from Teheran. Iran needs a cease-fire for its strategy of two front war against Israel has failed. Iran’s luck changed when Israel managed to disrupt the command chain up to the Iranian ambassador in Lebanon, who got maimed when operated one of the Hezbollah pagers in his own hands.
ISRAEL MOTIVES FOR CEASE FIRE
Benjamin Netanyahu political position is eroding everyday the war continues. The Israelis are tired with war and all families have someone serving in the conflict and they all want the hostilities to end as soon as possible.
The defense minister – opposition to Netanyahu – has been dismissed few weeks ago, triggering protests against the government. The left wing parties are using this event to create political momentum to force another election soon, although the war in Gaza continues.
The cease fire accepted guarantees the resupply of American Munitions as well as bring in the UK and France to be observers of the cease fire, reducing the Israeli international isolation.
The international public opinion has been most against Israel since the beginning of the Israeli retaliation, forgetting the thousands of Israelis slaughtered and hundreds of women raped on video and the 142 hostages taken into Gaza. This cease fire will at most not increase hostility against Israel.
Israel will have 60 days to leave the south of Lebanon and will use this time to create the means to monitor the area. In 2006, Israel left the are too fast and Hezbollah took control of the area immediately, even though UNIFIL was supposed to bar the militarization of the area. Now, Israel have the chance to remove the munitions depots used by the Hezbollah.
VIOLATION OF THE CEASE FIRE
This is not a matter of if, but a matter of when.
In October 7th, 2023 there was a cease fire and no Israeli was present in Gaza. Gaza was completely free and had their own government. The only presence of Israelis were those supplying water and energy to the Gaza strip.
It was Hamas decision to break the cease fire.
The Hezbollah had also prepared to fire rockets onto Israel from Lebanon. The UN 1701 was supposed to be enforce but Hezbollah preferred to violate it and bomb the north of Israel, forcing a two front war.
There are already reports that the cease fire will not hold, for Hezbollah is trying to move munitions to areas from where to hit Israel.
The participation trophy for Joe Biden will not happen.
REFERENCES
Why Israel and Hezbollah’s fragile ceasefire may already be faltering
Hezbollah said to estimate up to 4,000 fighters killed in war it initiated | The Times of Israel
Israel strikes Hezbollah ammunition depot in south Lebanon, sources say | Reuters
Full text: The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal | The Times of Israel