EITHER THE WORLD UPHOLD THE INTERNATIONAL LAW OR FACE THE CONSEQUENCES
The Russian invasion of Ukraine can be seen from multiple perspectives. The perspective of the invaders, that of the invaded, the observer from far away and the observer from within.
The Baltic states, Latvia, Estonia and Lituania together with Poland and Finland, Sweden and Norway knows the ambitions of the Imperial despot Vladimir Putin is. The past imperialistic moves from Russia shows the pattern of behavior.
Russia has invaded Crimea and annexed it in 2014. The reasons Russia did not annex Crimea before, it was due to the fact that the president of Ukraine since independence was very aligned to Moscow, doing whatever the Kremlin demanded them to do. This was true until the removal of Victor Yanukovych , who wanted to reject an economic accord with the European Union and make a very favourable one with Russia. Yanukovych was expelled from the presidency and later found protection in Russia.
Russia in August 2008 invaded the independent country of Georgia with the pretext of helping South Ossetia peoples and Abkhazia peoples who wanted to be annexed by Russia. Russia wanting to keep the “empire” intact, invaded Georgia. After military and diplomatic disputes, the region of Abkhazia and Ossetia are under control of Russia.
The former Soviet Republics are under continuous threat of invasion by Russia, who imperialistically demands to restore the greatness of the Czarist era or the Soviet era.
Surrendering any part of invaded areas to Russia stimulates Russia to invade other countries and annex them. This will be even more dangerous now, that Russia is on the brink of economic catastrophe and needs to loot the invaded countries and keep their populations under ransom, so that the international community will be compelled to send food aid that will end up feeding the Russian soldiers.
There are other countries that would invade their neighbors for their resources or access to the sea.
Stopping Russia and making it an example will also stop Iran from invading Iraq, will stop China from invading the South China Sea islands, will stop China from eyeing for Taiwan, will stop Congo from coveting Rwanda and will stop Rwanda from coveting Congo, keeping Bolivia from eyeing Acre from Brazil, keep Bolivia from engaging into war with Chile and Peru to recover access to the sea, keep Chile from eyeing Argentina territory and vice versa. Chad and Libia will not covet each other barren desert. Eritrea and Ethiopia will not engage in war for access to the sea. Pakistan and India will not engage into war to get Kashmir for themselves and even Japan and Russia will not have disputes for part of the Kurilles Islands. Not to say anything about Gaza and the West Bank and the Golan Heights and the settlements. There are disputes all around the world. There are disputes even between friends like Great Britain and Spain over Gibraltar.
Keeping the borders disputes at arbitration forums and not rewarding invaders is a requirement to keep peace in the world and reducing the chance that a country in a economic crisis will create a war to distract the public opinion from the economic mismanagement and push for a war that will result in death and destruction.
The reason why diplomacy is not working is because there are outdated rules in the international forum that fails to enforce the treaties. Nobody cares for diplomats flying around the world when Putin signs a treaty in 2014 and eight years later violates it and keep on with the invasion. Treaties are only worth the power to enforce them.
Before this treaty of 2014, Russia had signed a treaty not to invade Ukraine if Ukraine returned the nuclear material back to Russia. Russia does not want to abide to that treaty and none of the guarantors of the treaty (Great Britain and United States and France as observer) have used real power to enforce the treaty. There was billions of dollars paid to Russia in order to help it in the aftermath of the failure of the Soviet Union, but Russia is not part of the international community, Russia does not honor the treaties signed.
Diplomacy failed and the guarantors of these treaties failed to enforce them. The lack of will to enforce diplomatic negotiations sabotages the power of diplomacy.
Ukraine has been coveted by Russia to restore the imperialist vanity of Russia. There is not much in Ukraine that Russia doesn’t have. Russia has a coast on the other side of the Black Sea opposite to Crimea and the naval base in Sebastopol. Russia has more fertile land. Although Ukraine is a large producer of wheat, being the 7th biggest exporter in the world and 11th in production. Russia is a much bigger producer and exporter. There is no oil in Ukraine and there is no much other natural resources.
The reason for the invasion is the possibility of using Ukraine to invade further countries.
TRUMP BRAGGING HE CAN END THE WAR BY PHONE
This is an exercise of mind reading. It is a poor exercise, but the commentators are all aligning behind the idea that Ukraine must surrender and that a truce will be mandated giving away the conquered territories to Russia in exchange for peace.
There are several defects in this idea.
The truce in 2014 was signed following the idea that Putin would honor his word and end the invasion of Ukraine by annexing some of the Donetsk and the bases in the Crimea. This have proved that a signature of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is worth nothing. Putin invaded Ukraine again in 2022, although he – Putin – denied any attempt of invading Ukraine until the moment Russia invaded Ukraine in the 24th of Februrary of 2022.
So, what could actually end the war?
Another truce signed with Putin will only repeat the cycle of letting Russia rebuild its money reserves and postponing the plans of another invasion for a later time. The war is expensive and the Russian economy is suffering with the sanctions. There is inflation of 10% in a country with a dictator ruler, which means that prices are controlled and the actual published number for inflation is manipulated.
The proof that the inflation is high is the rise of interest rate. The nominal interest rate in Russia at this moment in September 2024 is 19% and this was the interest rate deemed “emergencial” few months ago. Thus the economy in in an emergency.
There is no foreign currencies, other that Indian Rupees of Chinese Rimimbis for foreign trade. The dollars and euros obtained are obtained by secondary negotiations in grey markets, which is expensive and serves as further indication of the dire straits of the Russian economy.
The other options is to offer Ukraine to join NATO immediately and raise the bet onto Russia, which will have to resort to their nuclear threat option. This can easily escalate to World War III, the fearmongers say, but the cause of this war is not Ukraine joining NATO. The cause for the war is the imperialist ambitions of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Russia. If Russia were not oppressing all former republics of the Soviet Union, there was no need for defense. Blaming Ukraine is blaming the victim and an exercise that is practiced by the Soviet widows in the West, who still miss the good old days of praising the Soviet model while living in a capitalist society.
If NATO nations actually back Ukraine, there will be escalation of animosity and the two possible exits for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is either nuke some city belonging to Nato and consequently starting World War III or to have Russia retreat to the lines before 2022 or even retreating to the lines of 1991.
One must remember that between abandoning Ukraine and backing it 100% there is a myriad of choices. There is possibility of America allowing Ukraine use some munitions against the invading imperialistic Russia. These munitions need not be reaching Moscow, but could be used to consolidate the conquest of Kursk, something that even Nazi Germany has failed to do.
There are plenty of other possibilities.
The USA may give Poland more support and as a NATO member, be a staunch barrier against further Russian aggression by increasing their military capabilities.
The USA may increase the production of oil in fracking and in Alaska driving down the price of oil all over the world, reducing Russian revenue.
The NATO nations may increase the support for Ukraine, adding this expense to the 2% institutional investment in defense for NATO members.
The NATO nations may tighten the economic sanctions against Russia reducing its revenue. Turkey could stop buying coal from Russia. South Korea could stop buying Russia coal. Taiwan could stop buying Russian coal. The EU and Turkey could stop buying Russian oil. Remember, Turkey is a NATO member.
Too many NATO members are enjoying cheap fossil fuels from Russia. Some phone calls and these sources of income will dry. This is just a phone call away. The data is public.
Putin also have free hand of fellow Soviet widows in America.
Putin is a KGB officer trained and indoctrinated to defend the Soviet Union. The widows of Soviet era in America are always creating excuses to justify why Soviet Union was not so bad, comparing to the worst of the capitalist America.
The problem is that the worst of capitalist America is usually a crime. The dog eat dog capitalist’s America is indicted and prosecuted for violations of free speech, abuse of economic power, breakage of contracts or some other abuse.
The defects of communism or socialism is that it does not allow free speech, it does interfere in the sacrality of private property and the imposes the will of the state onto the execution of contracts.
When Putin breaks the treatises he personally signed it is interpreted by him as business as usual, for his word means nothing and his signature means nothing. What it means is that might makes right and he will take advantage of it.
The Soviet widows will always endorse the expansion of imperialistic Soviet Russia, recreating the failed agglomeration of the never integrated countries into Soviet Russia, that actually have developed only few cities, Moscow and Leningrad being the preeminent ones. The other cities are just places where people live.
The whole socialist experiment created an economy that depends on extraction of oil and coal as exports as well as iron and wheat. So much for the Soviet widows to claim it developed a nation of the proletariat.
There is no justification for a Soviet widow to defend the imperialist expansion of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin onto the former components of the Soviet Union. There are Soviet widows all around the world, and these have been rewarded with praise inside their community of Soviet widows.
RUSSIA INTERNAL UPHEAVAL
The scenario from the outside is that nationalistic Russian’s are pro-war and they look at the Invasion of Ukraine as a legitimate defensive war against the imperialist advances of NATO.
This is the view of many people in Russia. They have a strong nationalistic tendency and line up behind Motherland as always.
There are cracks in the ranks though.
The insurgency of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is an interesting event. Prigozhin rebelled against the regular army forces of Russia and moved a column of tanks from Ukraine towards Moscow. This column was approaching the periphery of Moscow when it suddenly stopped and retreated. Prigozhin desisted from the rebellion. Mysterious negotiations took place and for a while seemed like there was an amnesty over his crimes of treason. Later his private jet fell from the skies with no apparent reason.
This event exemplifies the internal disputes within the government. The military commanders wanted to take over Wagner Group from Prigozhin and when he refused, some of the Russian army commanders did nothing to stop the rebellion on the path to Moscow. They are unsatisfied with the higher command of the army.
There are other problems with the supply of fuel too. Ukraine is using low cost drones to disrupt the production of refineries in Russia. Shortages of fuel for farming and use in the army made Russia reduce the exportation of fuel and even forced Russia to import Diesel from other former Soviet republics.
It is hard to read the mind of Trump and Putin. Those who claim that the solution Trump is proposing is surrender are betting on their own desire to help Russia which is in a very difficult situation.
The choices are open as ever.
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