AN UPDATE
The war is continuing in Ukraine. What was supposed to be a two weeks Special Operation in Ukraine turned to be a almost two years war that is still developing.
Europe is very comfortable waiting for the development of the war, having Vladimir Putin held by Ukraine and its courageous president Volodimir Zelensky. While Russia’s army is held in Ukraine Europe is just freeloading on the protection offered by the USA supply of munitions. Meanwhile the defense industry in Europe is ramping up production, each nation interested in producing munitions themselves to sell to Ukraine and to keep for their own defense.
Invasion of sovereign countries is taboo in the United Nations as well as in the defunct League of Nations. Alas, for the purpose of forestalling annexations, the UN is already defunct too. Russia has managed to breach both taboos by invading Finland in the Winter War in 1939 being expelled from the League of Nations. The UN is too feeble to act upon the Russians now.
Imperialism is permitted to some countries but forbidden for others and this makes the UN a weak arbiter for the truth is that left wing dicatorships like Russia or Soviet Union, China has managed to get its way with little or no real action from the UN when it invaded Tibet and installed military bases on the Spratyl Islands.
The cost of the Ukraine invasion to Russia is enormous. Almost two million of the best working men fled the country not to be conscripted in the army or was conscripted and died or got permanently incapacitated in war. These men will me dearly missed in the years to come in the economy. Some of them turning into a burden for the economy because they are incapacitated and will draw pensions.
The same applies to Ukraine. The human cost is gigantic but the Ukranians are in better position to get foreign aid during the reconstruction and the economy may benefit from donations. It will be difficult to justify sending food aid to Russia.
KURSK
The invasion of Kursk was a important coup by the Ukrainians. This showed that war is not only victories and they could as well suffer. War, the imposition of the will of one country upon the other and that once it is started, the whole of the nations are possible targets.
There is little strategic value in Kursk region, but it is a blow to the Kremlin that is still selling the notion that victory is at reach to its gullible population, blinded by nationalism, chauvinism and blind love to its dictator, that the victory is at their reach. The invasion of Kursk showed the reality. The most likely scenario is that war will continue for several months more and it may be long enough for the European munitions be ready for deployment.
If this happens, the Russians will have a much more difficult time to win the war. The war today is not developing well for the Russians and if more munitions are available to the Ukranians, there is a chance that those territories east of the Donetsky region be reclaimed by Ukraine. Even retrieving Crimea is not impossible anymore, though it is very unlikely.
ELECTION IN THE USA
The outcome of the election may change the destiny of Ukraine. Kamala Harris is much more inclined to the radical left of the Democrat party and she may show her true colors and support the former Soviet Union. Some may say this is absurd but it is not unprecedented.
François Hollande, the socialist president of France pushed for the cession of Crimea to Russia to appease Vladimir Putin, in exchange for peace. The shortsightedness is not accidental, for Putin annexed Crimea and tried to annex the whole Ukraine few years later, after appeasement from a socialist who Putin knew would be sympathetic to the former USSR. François Mitterrand, the other socialist French president was also more interested in appeasing the weak Soviet Union in its last legs, but wanted the Soviet Union to remain under the grips of socialism.
We do not know what Kamala Harris thinks, but she always organizes her solutions for all problems by having the government intervening into the problem and providing a government budgeted solution, very much like the socialist countries.
Joe Biden is Missing In Action and we do not know much about his current state of mind, much less of what were the discussion on the Ukraine war with the VP. The worst part if that his cabinet is a DEI collection of people. The secretary of defense was missing for weeks with nobody knowing he was interned in a hospital with a critical surgery that actually was not successful and had to be redone.
Usually, when the new president is installed, even if it is the previous vice president, a whole cabinet change is performed, in order to stablish the hierarchy, something that Biden failed to do because he retained too many former Obama’s operatives in his cabinet, leading to too much interference in the government.
Kamala may well switch for a immediate cease fire, consolidating the territorial gains of Russia and punishing Ukraine.
Donald Trump may too win the election and the mystery is thus the “I will end the war in two weeks”.
This has been speculated as forcing Ukraine to surrender or would mean that Ukraine would be offered direct assistance and means to push Russia out of Ukraine and thus pushing Putin into an armistice for fear of losing a direct conflict with America.
Who would support such proposal?
Surprisingly most European countries, starting with the Scandinavian ones would prefer this solution. Finland, Sweden and Norway fear invasion from Russia since the Imperial times of Russia. Finland suffered in the Winter War and would push for a strong alliance that is not only words but actual demonstration that imperialistic annexation of territories are unacceptable. The Baltic countries, Lituania, Estonia and Latvia also fears invasion from Russia, so a strong answer against imperialistic annexations are welcome there too. The same happens with Polonia and Hungary.
This would also be supported by those fearing another imperialistic expansion by China, that has already annexed Tibet and is eyeing new annexations in the South China Sea. Even Japan fears the expansionist views of the Chinese dictatorship eyeing to annex Taiwan to the mainland and even the whole of the South China Sea, including what is exclusive economic zones of Malasia and Philippines and even Viet Nan.
Australia has joined AUKUS, the club where the English speaking countries are joined to make a united front defending against China. The purchase of the nuclear submarines by Australia and the availability of bases in Australia has already made the Chinese fleet menace nullified.
SE VIS PACE, PARABELUM
The appeasement of the Obama years and Biden-Harris years have not worked. Russia has annexed Crimea and the lack of will to sustain the treatises of non aggression have fueled the ambitions of two dictatorships.
Time for countries to rely on diplomatic negotiations where the parties are equally militarily strong, instead of relying in diplomats that have nothing to lose but be sent to a lesser embassy if their negotiations fail and their countries are invaded.