RUSSIA IS THREATENING A NUCLEAR STRIKE
The strategy to back Ukraine and just allow them to keep the ongoing war of attrition against Russia has paid big for the Western European countries. This strategy maimed Russia at a very low cost to them. Huge cost to Ukraine, but also a huge cost to Russia. Russia is short in cash, has huge debts to China and India. The ruble is going down. Russia lost support in many Western countries and their population is fed up with rising prices, fake number on inflation, shortage of fuel and some imported goods and conscription of ever older males. Today, the conscription age is from 18 to 30 years males.
Russia has expected Volodimir Zelensky to flee and abandon office in the first few weeks. Now, the war is approaching the third year, the Ukrainians have suffered plenty of losses, but are not conquered yet. Biden poor judgement liberating longer range missiles forces Russia to either escalate the situation or to go resort back channels looking for an honorable escape. The back channels are the socialist oriented French Macron or the socialist oriented British Starmer. These two are desperate to premiere in the top world stage due to their floundering performance at national politics.
Russian non nuclear escalation will push the Europeans to further help the Ukrainians, using Ukraine as a buffer zone to further erode Russia economy, making Russia collapse by starvation of fuel, with cheap drones disrupting Russian refineries during winter time and making more difficult for Russia to maneuver cash using front companies in Europe.
Russian military escalation will also introduce more economic sanctions. Even India and China two nations that defied the world agreement on sanctions on Russia – cheap hydrocarbons was too much temptation for these two – are now afraid they will be tainted by dealing with Russia and are not buying as much as they did before. Moreover, there is a downward trend in the price of oil, so these two countries are back in the honest market.
To make matters worse, two biggest hydrocarbon contracts are due this December and will not be renewed. These contracts require use of a gas pipeline across Ukraine and until now Ukraine has honored the contract that allow Italy and Turkey – two NATO countries – moreover, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary also get cheap gas from Ukraine’s enemy, Russia.
The option for military escalation will condemn Russia for ostracism even if this escalation is not nuclear. In case it is nuclear, this will change the world forever, making Russia the pariahs of the world. Will Putin choose the nuclear war? Moreover, will be this a tactical nuke or a big one? Where Russia will strike? Is Russia ready to strike some other nation?
One thing to pay attention. If nuclear blackmail works for Russia, it will work for China-Taiwan and will work for North Korea-South Korea and India-Pakistan dispute. All nuclear nations will be tempted to sort their problems manu-military and resort to nuclear weapons if needed, because everyone is too coward to stand against the bully and defend what is right.
As per the words of late king George VI, “We have been forced into a conflict, for we are called, with our allies, to meet the challenge of a principle which, if it were to prevail, would be fatal to any civilized order in the world. It is a principle which permits a state, in the selfish pursuit of power, to disregard its treaties and its solemn pledges, which sanctions the use of force or threat of force against the sovereignty and independence of other states.
Such a principle, stripped of all disguise, is surely the mere primitive doctrine that might is right,
and if this principle were established through the world, the freedom of our own country and of
the whole British Commonwealth of nations would be in danger.
But far more than this, the peoples of the world would be kept in bondage of fear, and all hopes of
settled peace and of the security, of justice and liberty, among nations, would be ended.“
Appeasing an aggressor because of their stupid choice for war and when at disadvantage, use for nuclear weapons use will not bring peace.
History has taught us that aggressors do not stop at red lines that are not pushed back. The time for hard negotiations was in 2014, when weak Barack Hussein Obama allowed Putin to annex Crimea. There was a treaty where the USA and the United Kingdom guaranteed that Ukraine would not be invaded – 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. Russia has annexed the Crimea and little noise was heard about this violation.
If nuclear blackmail works this time, Russia will try to annex Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia and Lituania. Putin may not stop there. Even former Demokratische Republik Deutschland may be considered part of the former Soviet Union area of influence.
Other countries may follow the example. China will annex the South China sea. The disputes with the Philippines over the little islands may be ended with the same threats.
During the 45th presidency with Donald Trump, there was no invasion on Ukraine. The steadfast government that spoke in no uncertain terms that retribution was to be expected held Putin without use of weapons.
The botched withdrawal from Afghanistan moved Putin to gamble the will of the weak Joe Biden administration and repeated the aggression that was successful during the Nobel peace prize recipient Obama, who didn’t honor the Budapest Memorandum.
It is a high stakes gamble. Does Putin want to go into history as the one who pushed the third nuclear button?
The chances for a peace treaty with Russia is ZERO. Russia reneged all treaties it signed in regard to Ukraine. The 1994 treaty had the USA and GB as guarantors of territorial integrity, but nevertheless Putin invaded. There was a treaty signed in 2014, again it was violated.
The solution is that Russia and Ukraine agree to a DMZ, just like in the isle of Cyprus or Korean peninsula, where soldiers from other countries police the area against further aggression.
This solution can be arranged very quickly, with troops from the USA, Great Britain, Poland, Hungary and any other European country willing to participate policing this gap – the Donetsky region – against further conflict. This reagion may even include the Crimean peninsula.
REFERENCES
The end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine and options for the EU
Ukraine, Nuclear Weapons, and Security Assurances at a Glance | Arms Control Association
Making sense of Vladimir Putin’s war
Kremlin denies plans to invade Ukraine, alleges NATO threats – POLITICO