A COALITION OF AGRESSORS AGAINST THE SOLE DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
A coalition of aggressors have formed against Israel. The reasons for the aggression is the existence of Israel and the desire of each of the aggressors alone be the sole leader of the region.
This coalition, as many others before it is formed by the bond of hatred against Israel being stronger than the antagonism between themselves. The Iranians engaged in war against their neighbour Irak with the same gusto that the Persians have fought the Babylons in 539 B. C. The king of the Babylons invaded Tyre in 573 B. C.
After Mohamed the relations between neighbors have not improved much.
LEBANON
Modern Lebanon is a result of the Sykes Picot agreement of how to divide the Middle East after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. A anti-West view can see it as the West interfering on local affairs or see it as the liberation of these peoples from Ottoman rule.
This particular region was – and still is – a major concentration of Christians since the Roman Empire. Maronite Christians are a sect founded by a monk named Maron – or Maroun – that founded a Christian Movement called the Maronite Church.
Lebanon was part of the French Mandate in the fall of the Ottoman Empire and became independent from France after the Second World War, France having fallen to the Nazi Germans and Lebanon declared independence from Free France in 1943.
The political arrangement was made to keep religious groups in their roles, making the president always a Maronite, the Prime minister a Sunni and the speaker of the parliament a Shia Muslin. This was convenient and created a form of representation for the people at the same time kept the power players in their positions.
In the 1970s, the PLO who have operated from Syria to attack Israel were growing stronger started to try to overthrow the Hashemite king. After the Dawson Field hijacking – the hijacking of four western airliners – king Hussein decided to expel the PLO from Syria, after several terrorist attempts against his life.
The PLO were allowed to seek refugee status in Lebanon, where they regrouped and joined forces with the other Muslin denomination and tried the topple the Maronite government in the Lebanese Civil War.
The War went from 1975 to 1990 and during this period Iran has endured the Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1979, when a coup d’etat threw the Shah of Iran into exile and instated the Ayatollah Khomeini in power, with the invasion of the sovereign territory of the American embassy and taking of diplomatic personell as hostages fore more than a year.
The new government of Iran with the help of Syria, sponsored Hezbollah, a terrorist organization as per 60 plus nations, to wage war against Israel and to topple the Maronite government in Lebanon, which was still immersed in a civil war.
It was during this period that a Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr participated in the Bombing of Beirut Barracks in 1983, when 307 people were murdered in a bomb attack against French and American and Lebanese people. Shukr was assassinated in Lebanon August 2024 after being located hiding in Beirut.
The PLO brought chaos to Lebanon and using it as a springboard to attack Israel, created the same situation that exists today, 2024. The terrorists hide amongst the population and fires rockets and missiles towards Israel and cow when Israel counter attack into their territory.
The problem is that these players – PLO, Hamas, Fatah, Hezbollah, Iran, ISIL, Daesh, and all factions of Muslin faith also engages in wars against themselves as have recently happened in the Syrian Civil war.
WHY NOW?
This coordination within ex enemies capitalize on the opinion polls of the population around the world.
There is a feeling that the Western countries will not have the support of their population to fight alongside Israel and that this is the best chance the Islamic world have to get control of Jerusalem, the fetish city of theirs.
The population in the Islamic world is also in want of progress that has been promised by the commercialization of their natural resources – oil – that never materializes. There is also a heightening of tensions since the Arab Spring of 15 years ago, when hope for the end of stagnation would be within reach.
The reality of the majority of the population is of no perspective at all in life. This is due to the over reliance of the government on taxes and emoluments on oil and disregard for local development of industries or even agriculture.
Countries that were auto-sufficient in food like Egypt now import food stocks and sell these at subsidized prices, creating inflation, because the government has little revenue and thus money loses its value. Nonetheless the government can’t simply stop the subsidies – although it is reducing it – because it would create unrest in a country is already in shaky grounds of social stability.
War against Israel – and against Jews – create a national bond to allay the desire to remove their own government and unite against a common enemy, as perceived by the population.
ISRAEL SHALL WIN AGAIN
The cost of this war to Israel is enormous, but Israel shall be victorious again. This is the only way that Jerusalem will be open for Jewish, Christians and Muslin pilgrims alike. If Jerusalem falls, there will be no access to Jews anymore and the terms and conditions for the access of Christians are going to be tough to negotiate.
The current state of affairs, with the traditional supplier of munitions to the Arab states – Russia or Soviet Union – prohibits ressuply of munitions if there is a large scale conflict. The Russians are already under severe strain just to keep their special operation in Ukraine supplied.
This leaves open the path for China, the sponsor of the Silk and Trade road, the road that connects China to the Mediterranean Sea. China is eager to supply these munitions, but there are several problems and huge advantages. The time of low cost Ak-47s are over. The new battleground demands the use of drones and other unmanned aircraft. The Chinese have the opportunity to sell huge volumes of these to the belligerant parts, most likely ex-customers of Russia.
The West – the United States and France – must keep up the support for Israel and ressuply them in case of an open conflict. There is little option for France, with a enormous contingent of Muslin immigrants that will take on the French government if Israel loses the war. These Muslin immigrants already attack the French people, but then moment Israel falls, these mobs will believe their Jihad can extend to all countries.
This apply to the United Kingdom, who is under the government of Keir Starmer, a radical left wing politician who believes in his personal quality as a former prosecutor to prosecute people who his evaluation deems unfit.
The United Kingdom is a traditional friend of Israel, Israel owning to the Balfour Declaration its own existence. Today the support of Israel maybe waning for the Labor party has historically supported anti-Semites – Jeremy Corbin, the previous leader of the Labor Party was an unabashed anti-Semite full of apologies but a repeat offender.
Labor political base has a strong participation of the Muslin population, more than the Conservatives and this base is paramount for Starmer to keep office. The prime minister is already facing protests to end the aid to Israel.
The United States have a mysterious situation, for there is 50% chance of a pro Muslin president with Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. This can move the support for Israel awry for the swing states of Michigan have a sizeable population of Muslins that can decide the presidency.
Nonetheless, the American establishment would never turn away the sale of munitions in the Middle East and Israel will have plenty of supplies from the US, whoever the president is.
The difference is that a president Donald Trump may be interested in finishing the war quicker than Kamala due to the personal rapport with the Israel prime-minister, Benjamin Netaniahu.
The partners in the coalition will have to decide who will actually control Jerusalem. This can be the problem that will doom their attack on Israel.
The parties can not agree in which of the sects are to have the primacy over who are the true followers of Mohammed and will have a hard time to concede to another the government of the city or how the quarters will be separated. The Jordanians will demand their historical parts back but these are also coveted by Iran and Hezbollah. At the brink of the conquest their alliance of convenience will break and this can be the hope of Jews and Christians to keep Jerusalem an accessible city for all faiths.